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Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Not bullish on this bullpen (or the starters)



As I sit here fuming at the Harrisburg CW affiliate for not televising tonight's game, it gives me the perfect opportunity to share my thoughts on the Phillies bullpen, as promised here more than five weeks ago.

Come with me now on a trip back to November 2007 - a simple time when the Patriots were still undefeated, Rudy Giuliani was still the frontrunner for the Republican Presidential nomination, and I was still trying to get in shape for basketball season.

Not long after the Phillies completed the trade for closer Brad Lidge (commentary on what we gave away to follow another time), I explained my concerns to Mike. Hopefully, he will confirm that what follows is a close approximation of what I said back then:

I am a little annoyed about this trade. Unless the Phillies plan to re-sign Kyle Lohse and keep Brett Myers as their closer - which appears unlikely - I just don't like it. But consider what that staff would look like:

Starters: Cole Hamels, Lohse, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and Adam Eaton - of course, a priority would need to be made to juggle the rotation to maximize Eaton's starts against the Mets, plus as the #5 starter, they can and should skip his start whenever they can if it keeps the others on their normal pitching days (unless they need the rest).

The bullpen would see Myers (9th), Lidge (8th), J.C. Romero (7th), and Tom Gordon and Ryan Madson sharing duty when needed in the 6th. That would give the Phillies one of the best bullpens in the majors. If the starters can get through five or - praise the lord - six innings, Romero/Lidge/Myers would be a frightening prospect for opponents. Clay Condrey and J.D. Durbin can be those inning eaters in games where the Phils are either winning big or losing big. Either one of them could also be used as spot starters as necessary.

I realize the thinking is that picking up Lidge is like adding a quality starter (Myers), but I'm not buying what they're selling. Myers liked being the closer. Myers excelled as the closer. It suited him and his temperament. Why move him back to the rotation? He barely has the attention span to get through a two inning save - don't get me started on two inning saves - and he has shown time and time again that he cannot maintain his concentration for five, six, or seven innings without losing his temper on the mound and having it impact his pitching. With this in mind, trading for a closer when the team already has an above average one is a bad move - unless, like I said, they keep Lohse.

Only time will tell, but right now, I'm calling it a bad move.

More than five months later, I will concede that so far, I do like the upgrade from J.D. Durbin to Chad Durbin. In fact, depending on how Lidge performs, I could be convinced to feel good about Lidge (9th), Romero (8th), Durbin (7th), and Gordon/Madson sharing the 6th (in case you missed it, my feelings on Gordon are documented in the comment section here).

But I still think keeping Lohse would have been a good idea. His contract demands - or his agent's, depending on who you believe - in both dollars and years were in a free fall before he finally signed a one-year deal with the St. Louis Cardinals in mid-March for $4.25 million. He also pitched well in his first start against, ironically, the Colorado Rockies, throwing five shutout innings (with three hits, three walks, and three strikeouts), before being lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Given the addition of Chad Durbin to the bullpen, the Phillies could have still moved Myers back to the rotation. Imagine how formidable it would have looked then: Myers/Hamels/Lohse/Moyer/Kendrick. Regardless of what happens with this pitching staff as the season progresses, management's failure (or refusal) to find a way to make it work with Lohse could turn out to be the missed opportunity that defines whether or not this team makes the playoffs.

Your thoughts?

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2 comments:

Mike Hillman said...

Good analysis.

I agree that Myers does not have the temperament of a starter. I agree that Chad Durbin is a solid bullpen addition. I agree that Romero/Myers/Lidge would have been an awesome 7-8-9 punch, but never in a million years would the Phillies "disrespect" Gordon like that.

I, of course, share your hope that Lidge will be impressive in the closer role.

I am not sold on Lohse being a great pitcher. I guess the seventh-inning meltdown in the rain in Pittsburgh last year weighs disproportionately on my mind since I was in attendance. I would, however, say he's a better option than Adam Eaton. But who knows -- maybe the clean-shaven Eaton that debuted in the Phils' dugout last night will be a brand new man!

As I said yesterday, I'm not convinced Madson is a strong bullpen option. I hope to see an increased reliance on Durbin and a move away from Gordon and Madson. Hell, I'd rather put Condrey on the mound than Gordon.

I think this is all subject to change when Kris Benson works his way back and into the rotation. In my imaginary perfect world, Benson becomes an awesome starter, Eaton becomes the first-round pick (ha!) that he was, and Myers shifts back to the closer role with Lidge as his setup man. [end dream]

In closing, I would say that this is pretty true to what you said months ago, spelling errors (Brett, Madson) and all. :)

tmmullen said...

(1) What spelling errors? [love that "edit" button];

(2) Agree on Lohse not being a "great" pitcher, but the point is that having our Lohse and signing Lidge too would have made the pitching staff as a whole better;

(3) Not to mention this simple math equation: Lohse > Eaton. QED.

[gets on knees and silent prays that he is wrong wrong wrong about Eaton... and Gordon... and Lohse...]

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