2008 Preview: First basemen

Coincidentally, Phillies.com posted its season preview story for the hot corners today. The big news is that Ryan Howard [stats] will be the team’s starting first baseman this year. It also expounds upon the Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms platoon at third, but that’s a discussion for another day.

Should Howard find himself on the disabled list again this season, expect Helms, who has made 253 major-league appearances at first, to take over again. Other Phils with experience at first include Dobbs (22 times in the majors, 114 games in the minors), Chase Utley (24 in the majors), Eric Bruntlett (only once in the bigs and three times in the minors), Jayson Werth (once last year and 30 games in the minors), and former first baseman Pat Burrell.

Down on the farm, the Phillies have four infielders who are very capable of starting at first base at the Triple-A level: Juan Tejeda, who spent last year at Double-A Reading; and Val Pascucci, Mike Cervenak, and Andy Tracy – all offseason signings and spring-training invitees.

Juan Tejeda, 26, has the best prospects of becoming an everyday first baseman in the Major Leagues – though not with the Phillies. If Tejeda [stats] can show off his skills in the Lehigh Valley this year, he could be dealt away midseason to address some more pressing needs of the big team. Tejeda broke into the rookie league in 2001 in the Detroit Tigers’ organization and progressed well, playing at Low-A in 2002, High-A in 2003, and Double-A in 2004, but he found himself back at Double-A in 2005. He moved on to other franchises in 2006, peaking at Triple-A with the New York Mets but only playing at High-A with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Phillies signed Tejeda in 2007, and he had a good year in Reading, hitting .248 with 10 home runs. Because there are so many capable first basemen in the organization, Tejeda could be the premier first baseman for the IronPigs or he may be slowly integrated into Triple-A play throughout the season – if he’s not traded first. Opening Day: Lehigh Valley IronPigs starting first baseman.

Valentino Pascucci, 29, progressed smoothly to the Major Leagues, breaking in primarily as an outfielder for the Montreal Expos in 2004. Pascucci [stats] was released by the Nationals that offseason, and Pascucci missed the 2005 season. He played ball in Japan in 2006 before the Florida Marlins signed him and sent him to Triple-A last season. Pascucci has a lot of power, which he demonstrated by smacking 34 home runs for Albuquerque in 2007. He also posted a .284 average and stole nine bases. Pascucci appears to be a solid player who could succeed at the next level, but he’s running out of time. With five infielders already designated to start the season at Triple-A, Pascucci may have to spend some time in Reading. Opening Day: Reading Phillies starting first baseman.

Mike Cervenak, 31, has played more games at third base (408) than at first (341) but manned first four times as frequently for Triple-A Norfolk in 2007. Cervenak [stats] led the International League in hits (157) last year. Still, with so many qualified first basemen to choose from, I expect the Phillies to move Cervenak to third and, because he may have passed his prime, he may find himself moving down the affiliate ladder instead of up. Opening Day: Reading Phillies starting third baseman.

Andy Tracy, 34, has spent parts of three different seasons (2000 and 2001 with Montreal; 2004 with Colorado) in the Majors but has been stuck at Triple-A for the three years since. The OIP blog expects Tracy to start for the IronPigs, and as his numbers last year (.271 average, 23 homers) suggest, he is still a capable hitter. But with such a full roster of position players, Tracy [stats] will have to really impress at spring training to secure a spot with the Phillies organization. He is currently playing in the Dominican Winter League; maybe he should keep his passport handy and finish his career in Japan. Opening Day: Traded or released.

Several other players who are expected to play at the Triple- or Double-A level this season also have experience at first base: Catcher Paul Hoover (1 Major League appearance at 1B; 56 in the minors); second basemen Joey Hammond (66 times in the minors), Casey Smith (27), and Brad Harman (1); third basemen Neil Sellers (67) and Brennan King (9); and utility player Luke Appert (5).

The rest of the Phillies’ first basemen are young up-and-comers who will likely spend at least the first part of another season below the Double-A level.

Clay Harris, 25, played all of last season with High-A Clearwater, where he hit .255 with 10 home runs, 23 doubles, and 64 RBI. Harris [stats] was drafted in the ninth round of the 2005 draft out of LSU, and he spent the summer of ’05 with short-season Batavia. He played at Low-A Lakewood in 2006 and got his shot with Clearwater in ’07. He may find himself in Reading before 2008 is over. Opening Day: Clearwater Threshers starting first baseman.

Douglas Morales, 22, was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2003. The lefty from Nicaragua played one season (2005) in the rookie Gulf Coast League and split 2006 among Batavia (SS), Lakewood (Low A), and Clearwater (High A). Morales [stats] landed back in Lakewood for 2007, where he hit a mediocre .250 and hasn’t shown any long-ball power. In addition to first base, Morales has also spent significant time in the outfield. Opening Day: Clearwater Threshers backup utility player.

Charlie Yarbrough, 23, was the Ohio Valley Conference player of the year and a Conference All-Star First Baseman with Eastern Kentucky in 2006. Yarbrough [stats] debuted with the Batavia Muckdogs that year and moved up to Lakewood in 2007. He had a lackluster season, hitting only .215 with two home runs. Opening Day: Lakewood BlueClaws starting first baseman.

Matt Rizzotti, 22, graduated from Manhattan College last year after receiving many conference honors. The Phillies took him in the sixth round of the 2007 draft and he played in 63 games for Williamsport. With a .260 average and two home runs, Rizzotti [stats] shows promise. Opening Day: Lakewood BlueClaws backup first baseman.

Mike Durant, 21, is the youngest first baseman in the organization. The Phillies selected Durant [stats] in the fourth round of the 2005 draft, and he spent two seasons in the rookie leagues. He played all of last year with short-season Williamsport, where he hit .236 with five home runs. Expect him to spend another year with the CrossCutters. Opening Day: Williamsport CrossCutters starting first baseman.

2008 Preview: Catchers

Instead of moving to my projected Lehigh Valley IronPigs roster for 2008, I’ve decided to evaluate all the players in the Phillies’ organization by position, starting today with the catchers. Keep in mind that I’m no talent scout, so I’m relying on information that is readily available on the Internets and my own observations and analyses based on the few minor league games I get to each year. I also make no guarantees as to the completeness of the lists of players, since minor-league transactions and free agency are hard to track.

The Catchers

The team has made it clear during this offseason that Carlos Ruiz [thebaseballcube.com stat page] will be the primary catcher for the 2008 season, and Chris Coste [stats] will serve as his backup. I wouldn’t expect any shake-ups, because the Phillies have seemingly settled on Ruiz as the future, and Coste is too late in his career to really be a trade option.

The Phillies signed a split contract with last year’s late-season acquisition, Pete Laforest [stats], which will see him starting the year at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Laforest is not a prospect to be an everyday catcher for the Phillies, so expect him to take a backseat behind the plate for the IronPigs to the younger Jason Jaramillo. Laforest’s primary role will likely be as the team’s designated hitter. He could get the call-up due to an injury to Ruiz or Coste if the organization feels Jaramillo isn’t ready for the bigs. Otherwise, Laforest could be traded to a team that needs a catcher or DH. If not, he isn’t likely to rejoin the Phillies until the September roster expansion. Opening Day: Lehigh Valley IronPigs starting designated hitter.

Jaramillo, who will be 25 for the 2008 season, is young and on the upward trajectory. The folks over at the Original IronPigs Blog have posted a nice review of his career (though I’d note that Jaramillo obviously played for Ottawa, not Scranton, in 2007). His play earned him protection from the Rule 5 Draft when the Phillies added him to the 40-man roster after the 2007 season. Jaramillo [stats] was invited to spring training for 2008. Opening Day: Lehigh Valley IronPigs starting catcher.

This is a make-or-break year for Tim Gradoville, 28, a fellow Central Pennsylvanian who is treading into the waters of career minor leaguers. After three years at Creighton University, Gradoville [stats] played rookie ball in 2002 and spent all of 2003 with Low-A Lakewood. He split 2004 between Lakewood and High-A Clearwater. His career looked to be on the upswing in 2005, when he moved on to Reading and even played nine games at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. However, Gradoville found himself back with Reading in 2006 and again in 2007, when he posted a paltry .152 average in 46 games. Gradoville has reached Triple-A for short, unproductive stints in three straight years, but still received a spring training invite for the upcoming season. Gradoville is likely to start 2008 as the primary catcher in Reading, but he will give way to a younger, more promising backstop before year’s end. Opening Day: Reading Phillies starting catcher.

Lou Marson, at age 22, is rising rapidly through the organizational ranks. Marson [stats] played rookie ball in 2004, spent 2005 with short-season Batavia, 2006 with Low-A Lakewood, and posted a .288 average with High-A Clearwater in 2007. He has earned a second spring-training invitation from the big team. I expect him to start the season learning the ropes behind Gradoville in Reading, but he will emerge as the primary catcher at the Double-A level by the end of ’08. Opening Day: Reading Phillies backup catcher.

Orlando Guevara, 24, is another young catcher who has caught the eye of the Phillies’ brass. A non-drafted free agent signing, Guevara [stats] has played in just 70 games over four years, posting a career average of .158, but the scouts must see something in him, because he has already played as high as Triple-A (for three games in 2006). He only played in 17 games last season, all for High-A Clearwater, but he inked a new deal and was invited to 2008 spring training. The OIP blog mentions that Guevara “has earned a reputation for being good at handling pitchers,” possibly explaining the Phillies’ interest. However, he’ll need to prove himself at the plate before moving to the real show in Reading or Allentown. Opening Day: Clearwater Threshers starting catcher.

John Suomi’s career has never really gotten started. Suomi, 27, began in the Oakland Athletics’ organization in 2000 and never made it out of “A” ball over five seasons. After staying out of affiliated baseball in 2005, Suomi [stats] moved on to Pittsburgh in ’06, where he hit for .295 in High-A. The Nationals took a chance on Suomi: he played 36 games in Double-A Harrisburg last season, and even played five games in the Triple-A International League. Suomi played 20 games at Clearwater in 2007 and signed a new contract with the Phillies for 2008. He could start in Clearwater and earn a promotion to Reading, but I’d put him behind Guevara on the depth chart simply because of their ages. Opening Day: Clearwater Threshers backup catcher.

Tuffy Gosewisch, 24, put in four years at Arizona State before the Phillies drafted him in 2005. Gosewisch [stats] played at short-season Batavia in ’05 and leapt to High-A Clearwater for 2006, but he dropped back to Low-A Lakewood for 2007. He showed enough promise to earn an invitation to this year’s spring training, but with a .224 average in ’07, I expect James Benjamin to spend some more time in Lakewood before he gets another crack at Clearwater. Opening Day: Lakewood BlueClaws starting catcher.

Joel Naughton, 21, batted .275 in 29 games in the rookie leagues in 2005. Naughton [stats] played in 45 games, batting .206, for short-season Batavia in 2006. Last season, Naughton hit .259 in 56 games for the BlueClaws. He should start 2008 where he finished 2007. Opening Day: Lakewood BlueClaws backup catcher.

The rest of the catching crew will fight for spots on the rosters of Lakewood or short-season Williamsport:

Alan Robbins, 24, was drafted by the Phils in the 32^nd round out of Winthrop in 2006. After a stint in the rookie Gulf Coast League in ’06, Robbins [stats] split time between short-season Williamsport (.227, seven games) and Low-A Lakewood (.211, 14 games) in 2007.

Timothy Kennelly, 21 years old and born in Australia, mans the hot corners in addition to catching. Kennelly [stats] played primarily third base for the Gulf Coast League Phillies in 2005. He spent most of 2006 and 2007 with the Phils’ short-season squads. Kennelly peaked at Clearwater for five games last season.

Caleb Mangum, age unknown, played four years for North Carolina State and made his pro debut last season, batting .257 in 48 games with the Crosscutters of Williamsport. [stats]

Kirk Bacsu, 23, was drafted out of Evansville last year and went 5-for-33 in 14 appearances in Williamsport. [stats]

If you have additional information or anything to add to my take on how the catchers will shape up throughout the franchise, please feel free to comment. Check back tomorrow for a look at the organization’s first basemen.

Phillies' roster preview

After yesterday's rousing sneak peak at the roster of the IronPigs, I figured it would make sense to start at the top and try to project the Phillies' opening day roster for 2008. This is based on who is on the team now, barring any transactions, so it is likely to change. It's worth noting that the Phillies' website has a "projection" of sorts, but it's incomplete and contradictory to some other material on the site (read the photo caption). So, here goes:

Starting Pitchers
Ace: Cole Hamels (LHP)
#2: Brett Myers
#3: Jamie Moyer (LHP)
#4: Kyle Kendrick
#5: Chad Durbin

Bullpen
Closer: Brad Lidge
Set-up: Tom Gordon
Lefty: J.C. Romero (LHP)
Lefty: Travis Blackley (LHP)
Adam Eaton
Ryan Madson
Clay Condrey

Catchers
Carlos Ruiz
Chris Coste

Infielders
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
SS: Jimmy Rollins
3B: Greg Dobbs
Bench: Wes Helms (3B)
Bench: Eric Bruntlett (SS/2B/3B)

Outfielders
LF: Pat Burrell
CF: Shane Victorino
RF: Geoff Jenkins
Bench: Jayson Werth (RF)
Bench: So Taguchi (LF)

Each major league team has a 40-man roster in addition to its active 25-man roster. These are the leftover players, based on the above projection:

Joe Bisenius (RHP), Fabio Castro (LHP), J.D. Durbin (RHP), John Ennis (RHP), Anderson Garcia (RHP), J.A. Happ (LHP), Lincoln Holdzkom (RHP), Scott Mathieson (RHP), Francisco Rosario (RHP), Shane Youman (LHP), Mike Zagurski (LHP), Jason Jaramillo (C), Brad Harman (2B), T.J. Bohn (OF), Chris Snelling (OF).

I think the only spots on the 25-man roster that are up for grabs are Blackley's and Condrey's. Based on the IronPigs' preliminary roster, the Phillies franchise is way overstocked with pitchers, and I don't know where they're all going to land.

One spot was opened up over the weekend when the Phillies waived lefty Matt Smith. Smith appeared in nine games for the Phillies in 2007 after coming over from the Yankees in the Abreu/Lidle trade. After amassing an ERA of over 11 in his 4.0 big-league innings with the Phils, Smith was optioned to Triple-A Ottawa and had Tommy John surgery, missing the rest of 2007.